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Management of the Pearl Floral Shop feels that its sales are seasonal in nature with a monthly seasonally pattern and a trend. The demand data for the past three years are given in the third worksheet of the Problem Set 1 spreadsheet.

1)   Calculate the Seasonal Ratio for each of the 3 years, the average seasonal ratio, and deseasonalize the data (divide the data by its appropriate average seasonal ratio.

2)   Determine the slope and intercept of the deseasonalized data and forecast for the next year (12 months).

3)   Reseasonalize the forecast data (multiply by the appropriate average seasonal ratio).

4)   Determine the MAD and MAPE for the method; Plot the forecast and the actual data for periods 1-36.

 
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