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write my assignment 28932

19671968196919701971

Time “Index”

t=0 t=1 t=2 t=3 t=4

Cash Flow ($ millions)

-$100 -$200 -$200 -$200 -$200

According to Lockheed testimony, the production phase was to run from the end of 1971 to the end of 1977 with about 210 Tri Stars as the planned output. At that production rate, the average unit production cost would be about $14 million per aircraft.2 The inventory- intensive production costs would be relatively front-loaded, so that the $490 million ($14 million per plane, 35 planes per year) annual production costs could be assumed to occur in six equal increments at the end of years 1971 through 1976 (t=4 through t=9).

Revenues

In 1968, the expected price to be received for the L-1011 Tri Star was about $16 million per aircraft. These revenue flows would be characterized by a lag of a year to the production cost outflows; annual revenues of $560 million could be assumed to occur in six equal increments at the end of years 1972 through 1977 (t=5 through t=10). Inflation-escalation terms in the contracts ensured that any future inflation-based cost and revenue increases offset each other nearly exactly, thus providing no incremental net cash flow.

Deposits toward future deliveries were received from Lockheed customers. Roughly one- quarter of the price of the aircraft was actually received two years early. For example, for a single Tri Star delivered at the end of 1972, $4 million of the price was received at the end of 1970, leaving $12 million of the $16 million price as cash flow at the end of 1972. So, for the 35 planes built (and presumably, sold) in a year, $140 million of the $560 million in total annual revenue was actually received as a cash flow two years earlier. 

Discount Rate

Experts estimated that the cost of capital applicable to Lockheed’s cash flows (prior to Tri Star) was in the 9%-10% range. Since the Tri Star project was quite a bit riskier (by any measure) than the typical Lockheed operation, the appropriate discount rate was almost certainly higher than that. Thus, 10% was a reasonable (although possibly generous) estimate of the appropriate discount rate to apply to the Tri Star program’s cash flows.

Break-Even Revisited

In an August 1972 Time magazine article, Lockheed (after receiving government loan guarantees) revised its break-even sales volume: “[Lockheed] claims that it can get back its development costs [about $960 million] and start making a profit by selling 275 Tri Stars.”3 Industry analysts had predicted this (actually, they had estimated 300 units to be the break- even volume) even prior to the Congressional hearings.4 Based on a “learning curve” effect, production costs at these levels (up to 300 units) would average only about $12.5 million per unit, instead of $14 million as above. Had Lockheed been able to produce and sell as many as 500 aircraft, this average cost figure might even have been as low as $11 million per aircraft.

  1. At originally planned production levels (210 units), what would have been the estimated value of the Tri Star program as of the end of 1967?
  2. At “break-even” production of roughly 300 units, did Lockheed break even in terms of net present value?
  3. At what sales volume would the Tri Star program have reached true economic (as opposed to accounting) break-even?
  4. Was the decision to pursue the Tri Star program a reasonable one? What effects would you predict the adoption of the Tri Star program would have on shareholder value? 

 

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write my assignment 18480

Severe & Hazardous Weather  Active Learning Exercises – Ed 4 Exercise 19.1 

Tornado: Myth or Fact? Indicate whether each of the following statements about tornadoes is fact or myth.

1. Tornadoes can be invisible. MYTH FACT

2. Tornadoes have occurred in all 50 states.  MYTH FACT

3. Tornadoes are attracted to mobile home communities.  MYTH FACT

4. Tornadoes always rotate counter‐clockwise in the Northern  MYTH FACT Hemisphere.

5. If a tornado watch has been issued, then this means a tornado  MYTH FACT  has been sighted.

6. Tornadoes cannot hit downtown areas because the buildings  MYTH FACT deflect the airflow.

7. If there is a tornado watch, you should open all the windows  MYTH FACT in your house or apartment.

8. A tornado can contain within its circulation two or more  MYTH FACT smaller vortices called suction vortices.

9. An interior room of a building with no windows is one of the  MYTH FACT safer places to be during a tornado.  

10. When the tornado siren goes off should grab your  MYTH FACT camera and go outside to record the event.

11. If you are driving in a car on the highway and see a tornado  MYTH FACT behind you, one of the worst options is to find the nearest  overpass and hide under it.

12. When the tornado siren goes off, go to the innermost room  MYTH FACT in the lowest level of your house or building.

13. If your area is under a tornado watch the safest course of  MYTH FACT action is to grab your camera phone, jump in the car and  chase it.  

14. If you have no basement, during a tornado seek shelter  MYTH FACT in a ground floor level bathroom, get in the bathtub and  cover yourself with a blanket to protect from flying debris.  

 

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write my assignment 10868

1.

 A coworker is considering the use of a log linear (power) model using weight to estimate the cost of a manufacturing effort. They have performed the following calculations in log space using natural logarithms. Select the corresponding unit space form of this power model equation.

Log Space  b1 = 1.455294  Log Space  b0 = 3.673610

   Cost = 51.387143 (Weight) 1.455294

   Cost = 39.393861 (Weight) 1.455294

   Cost = 1.455294 + 3.939388 (Weight)

   Cost = 3.939388 + 1.455294 (Weight)

2.

You have calculated the following power model and associated unit space values:

[Image Description: n =9, Summation of (Y– Yhat)2 = 3298]

   Power equation because it has a higher standard error than the linear model.

   Power equation because it has a lower standard error than the linear model.

   Linear equation because it has a lower standard error than the power model.

   Linear equation because it has a higher standard error than the power model.

 

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write my assignment 9535

Open a search engine of your choice.

Search for the phrase “free personality test.” You will find links for many free tests based on the various personality theories.

Select and complete one test, and then answer the following questions.

Explain which test you took.

What did your results say? (You may paste the results page here if you like.)

Did the page mention what theorist the test used to develop the test (such as Jung, etc.)? While taking the test, did the questions seem to correlate with the theory? Why or why not?

Provide a thoughtful description of your personality. Do you think the results were accurate? If not, then what was inaccurate?

Would you want this personality assessment to be used by a place of employment to match you to a job environment? To select you for a position? Why or why not?

What is your evaluation of your personality assessment and did you find it helpful?  Do you believe this test to be valid and reliable? Explain.

 

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